I might have picked a less stressful topic to look at. I seriously doubt that 10,000 is a serious window. 5,000 years maybe.
But I'm currently going through some serious problems. I'd stop short of saying that I'm having a nervous breakdown, but that's the general direction of things. Of course, you'd think I'd already had one if you read my physics without thinking about it, but I cannot pick that up before tomorrow because of these other issue. Perhaps tomorrow.
For the moment, it has been since Friday that I swam last. During that 4 day period, my neck and muscles have only just now begun to return to any kind of functionality, so I needed the break. I've also, for the last two days, been riding my bike to work which has aspects of exercise and, given the generous weather, a certain calming influence. Unfortunately, this doesn't really compare with the intensity of the swimming workouts and while my body had pretty much reached the end of its capability to absorb any more punishment without the resort to some sort of break or cross training, my mind still needed it.
It was made worse because I find myself in a renewed turmoil that has recovered its immediacy. This is not a bad thing, despite the fact that it will likely drive me made because my "defenses" were breached and some of the pressure tied to avoidance is released even as the demons that torment me come in. You see one of the defenses is that if I know what to do, but there is a reason for me to delay it, then I can justify putting off a critical decision. This had a lot more validity 3 months ago than it does today, but I see already that every day I wait, the ability to find new barriers increases. It is hard to understand in the abstract. Perhaps it is enough to say that the strain is terrible, the absence of a deadening activity means that even the tiny cups of coffee I drink are enough to set my mind on fire, the beautiful weather in which I ride my bike provides moments of solitary joy; but after the sun goes down, I am forced to face myself.
of course mankind will be lucky to make ti 5,000 years, much less 10,000 years, but it has years to find out beyond the few that remain to me and every day that goes by I am that day poorer, the ability to salvage a life is that further gone.
In trying to determine what the world should look like given the assumption of a 10,000 year target one might ask, why 10,000 years and what is next.
Based on this obvious question, I venture that in a legitimate plan, each few years the plan would be updated and extended a like number of year. For example, at the end of 5 years, the plan could be extended to 10,010 years. Likewise if events dictated, it could be shortened.
A list of the hazards to be addressed is worth considering. It is almost certain that in those isolated war torn countries in the prior e-mail that those planning for survival looked at each of the more obvious dangers and the more successful would have looked far ahead, both in terms of what to fear and what to prepare for.
The position of the world is much more tenuous and yet precious little preparation is even considered. A solar flare, for example, could eliminate life as easily (much more easily) as a nuclear war. While not as likely, the scenario for mankind surviving past a solar flare would require dramatically different preparations than anything we are capable of. At the opposite extreme a period of solar or at least planetary cooling would provide challenges, which although not as extreme, are also beyond our capability even were we capable of the level of cooperation to address them.
Getting clear of earth, the solar system and even the galaxy eventually would have to be one of the targets to avoid these types of disasters. Sadly, the reason that we haven't seen other entities engaged in a similar activity, coming to earth to set up colonies to our detriment in all likelihood, is probably due more to the difficulty in accomplishing the task than to the lack of superior intellects and organizations in the great beyond. One can envision the scenario where we decide this type of undertaking. Arming the venture sufficiently to take on a hostile biosphere would be difficult to imagine, much less a hostile race. The size of an interplanetary force would probably be relatively small although to have a biosphere capable of surviving several hundred years at various accelerations the size of the maintenance crew alone would be daunting. How to do this has been addressed by several authors the most likely ones involve creating the crew at proximity and the colony on arrival, although that is outside of our current capabilities.
It is, therefore important to prioritize. The first 1,000 years might largely ignore the broader aspects of survival or at least delegate them to theoretical preparations. We would "hope" that nothing too terrible occurred during that time period and instead concentrate just on the immediate problems, climate, conservation, global war, overpopulation, general stupidity of the species in short. If we had the ability to address our own short sightedness and stupidity that would have to be enough for the first period, if we failed, we wouldn't reach past it anyway.
I have done all I can for the moment, knowing what it would take for me to find some sense of calm to continue, I wonder what you would do?
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