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Saturday, July 19, 2014

China's weaponized economy, the new BRIC bank, Malaysia Flt 17 and the failure of sanctions

Modi to launch 1st multilateral engagement with BRICS leaders - Economic Times http://tinyurl.com/kppvxmf shared via www.newshog.co
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28317555

The collapse of the Mid-East, the war between Ukraine and Russia, the ascendance of China through the theft of middle class manufacturing jobs, the bankrupting of the US economy through profligate spending and the lack of medium or long term intelligence and precious little short term intelligence.
Every 40 years the reserve country currency changes and we are at the end of the time period for the United States.  Historic statistics counsel that what we are looking at is a titanic shift in currency value.
There is more going on, there is a shift of the structure of world power from West to East.  This is only one of a series of transitions from east to west that have occurred over the last 3,000 years.
While the subject of a much longer paper; this series of events can be tied together to explain what has been said many times and predicted in China's Weaponized Economy before.  While the BRIC includes Brazil, a largely western country, transitions of power have always involved unusual alliances and Brazil alone doesn't prevent this from being an east west transition.
While the full scope of this is beyond the scope of a blog entry (being the scope of a book and research paper) these few items, the BRIC bank, Flt 17 and the failure of sanctions to stop the War in Ukraine as well as the disruption of the middle east can be seen as symptoms of this transition and the failure of western government.
The issue appears to be the inability of countries to control their debt.  As their currencies become more powerful, the amount of credit this series of failed empires has obtained has grown proportionately and they have drawn on it until each one in turn has collapsed.  Who cannot say that America has gone bankrupt in terms of debt, pursuing a policy of world domination through conflict.
Rome lasted much longer, but their domination was based on the export of technology, the scope of the technological advances of Rome compared to the east (and much of the west) and the very size of the undertaking geographically; and even so, ultimately they too failed for the same reasons.
During the cold war, the West was able to remain dominant by controlling technological advancement and manufacturing, centered on what can best be described as middle class manufacturing.  Large scale manufacturing followed this since the resources and innovations of the middle class supported the large scale manufacturing and provided innovation when large scale manufacturing became moribund.  Unfortunately, the middle class manufacturing was exported to china and the large scale manufacturing followed.
With its natural resources, Russia came to occupy a place of power along with the other, albeit out of control middle class manufacturing center in India.  Brazil as the recovering debtor of the western world rounds out the BRIC block that have now formed their own bank and paved the way for the inevitable collapse of the dollar as the reserve country.  Even now, only the perceived stability of the west has kept the dollar in place, but this is changing rapidly.
First, Russia can now face the sanctions put against it by the West with increasing alliances with China, both as a customer for its vast natural resources and a banking partner.  A broke country cannot continue to force its influence, previously built on its manufacturing might, using a military it can no longer afford.  The ability of Russia to ignore the sanctions in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine and even the severe moral sanctions related to the downing of Flight 17 and their co opting of the investigation highlight this shift.  While the inability to control Russia is serious, it is not as serious today as the gradual assent of the radical middle east which will largely destabilize the west through increasing unrest as seen most clearly in Europe today and in the increased threat of terrorism in the US as well funded, country owning republics with a grudge against the US achieve dominance in light of the failing support from the West.
Is it too late to do anything?  I think that is a debatable issue.  Certainly it would involve draconian changes in the US government, but at least some of the ideas for that have been generated and if an intelligent government were in place, which clearly we don't have today, at least knowing the problems would allow the potential for action to prevent the downfall of western civilization and the rise of the East which is a historic cycle repeated too often to bad effect.






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